The National Institute of Economic Research (Konjunkturinstitutet) has published an evaluation of the Riksbank forecasts of inflation. It concludes that the Riksbank has systematically overestimated inflation and that this “has contributed to overly tight monetary policy with higher unemployment and lower inflation.”

The NIER’s analysis “examines the Riksbank’s forecasts of CPI inflation and underlying inflation (UND1X/CPIX and CPIF) for systematic errors at 1- to 24-month horizons, and finds that the central bank’s forecasts of both CPI inflation and underlying inflation contain systematic errors. The Riksbank’s overestimation of inflation has contributed to overly tight monetary policy with higher unemployment and lower inflation than would have been the case if, on average, its inflation forecasts had been on the mark.”

Full report: English Swedish
The NIER’s web site