Reservation against the Riksbank Account of Monetary Policy in 2012

I enter a reservation against the Account of monetary policy in 2012, because I consider the account to be incomplete and in several respects misleading and thus it does not offer an adequate basis for an assessment of the Riksbank’s monetary policyRead more (English Swedish)

Target attainment is currently poor, since inflation is way below the inflation target and unemployment is way above a reasonable long-run sustainable rate. An important issue is whether target attainment could have been better with a more expansionary monetary policy, but a thorough analysis of this issue is missing in the account. That monetary policy has not been more expansionary is, as far as can be judged, because it has to a great extent been conducted for the purpose of limiting household debt. However, extensive research and several inquiries show quite unequivocally that the policy rate has little effect on the household debt ratio. The fact that this is the case is not indicated in the account. A more expansionary monetary policy with an unchanged low policy rate since 2010 would according to a preliminary calculation have held CPIF inflation close to the target, led to much lower unemployment and led to an insignificantly higher debt ratio in the short term, while not affecting the debt ratio in the long term. Read more (English Swedish)
Reservation (English) Reservation (Swedish)   Account of monetary policy 2012 (English)  Redogörelse för penningpolitiken 2012 (Swedish)

Reservation Against Riksbank Decision to Increase Its Foreign Exchange Reserves

Reservation by Deputy Governors Karolina Ekholm and Lars E.O. Svensson Against Riksbank Decision to Increase Its Foreign Exchange Reserves, December 6, 2012. English Swedish.  Riksbank announcementEditorial by Peter Wolodarski, Dagens Nyheter, December 16, 2012 (Swedish).

Vi reserverar oss mot beslutet att förstärka valutareserven med motsvarande 100 miljarder kronor, eftersom vi anser att ett bättre alternativ är att ingå ett avtal med Riksgäldskontoret om att valutareserven ska återställas inom 10 bankdagar efter beslut om att ta den i anspråk för likviditetsstöd. Ett sådant avtal har fördelen att skattebetalarna slipper betala för bankernas riskfyllda upplåning i utländsk valuta.

We enter a reservation against the decision to reinforce the foreign exchange reserves by the equivalent of SEK 100 billion, as we consider a better alternative would be to enter into an agreement with the Swedish National Debt Office that the foreign exchange reserves will be restored within 10 banking days after a decision has been made to use the reserves for liquidity assistance. Such an agreement would have the advantage that the taxpayers would not need to pay for the banks’ risky borrowing in foreign currencies.

 

Interview: “No sign of a housing bubble” (Swedish)

Inga tecken på bostadsbubbla” (“No sign of a housing bubble”, in Swedish), interview in Svenska Dagbladet, November 14, 2012

Rättelse i papperstidningen (web-versionen är korrekt): Slutet i svaret på andra frågan skall vara “Skulle man höja räntan med 1 procentenhet skulle bostadspriserna falla med 1–3 procent. Däremot skulle BNP samtidigt falla ordentligt, nästan 2 procent, och arbetslösheten öka ordentligt, nästan 1 procentenhet.” (Siffrorna 6 och 3 i papperstidningen istället för 2 och 1 gäller om styrräntan höjs så mycket att bostadspriserna faller med 10 procent istället för med 3 procent.)