Anticipated Alternative Instrument-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations – Abstract


Stefan Laséen,
Sveriges Riksbank
Lars E.O. Svensson
Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm University, CEPR, and NBER

International Journal of Central Banking 7(3) (2011) 1-35

First version: October 2007
This version: May 2011

This paper specifies a new convenient algorithm to construct policy projections conditional on alternative anticipated policy-rate paths in linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, such as Ramses, the Riksbank’s main DSGE model. Such projections with anticipated policy-rate paths correspond to situations where the central bank transparently announces that it, conditional on current information, plans to implement a particular policy-rate path and where this announced plan for the policy rate is believed and then anticipated by the private sector. The main idea of the algorithm is to include among the predetermined variables (the “state” of the economy) the vector of nonzero means of future shocks to a given policy rule that is required to satisfy the given anticipated policy-rate path.

JEL Classification: E52, E58

Keywords: Optimal monetary policy, instrument rules, optimal policy projections