VoxEU column, November 11, 2025

The Swedish authorities and international organisations often claim that household debt poses a threat to financial and macroeconomic stability, with reference to a high debt-to-income ratio. This column argues that the debt-to-income ratio is a poor predictor of future crises, and that one should look at aggregate and individual data on household solvency (debt relative to assets) and liquidity (debt-service relative to debt-service capacity) instead. Because solvency and liquidity levels are good, Swedish household debt is not a threat to financial and macroeconomic stability.