Term, Inflation, and Foreign Exchange Risk Premia: A Unified
Lars E.O. Svensson
CEPR, and NBER
NBER Working Paper No. 4544
The paper reviews the theoretical foundations of the use of forward interest rates to infer expected future rates of interest, inflation, currency depreciation and inflation differentials. Forward rates are related to these expected future variables via combinations of term, inflation and foreign exchange risk premia. A unified derivation, discussion and comparison of these premia is provided under both general and specific assumptions, as well as some comments on empirical estimation.