“Monetary policy and macroprudential policy: Different and separate?” paper (revised March 2018), Canadian Journal of Economics, forthcoming. First version and and slides presented at the conference “Macroprudential monetary policy,” Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s 59th Economic Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, October 2-3, 2015. Excel sheet used in slide 21 for the simple example of a cost-benefit analysis of leaning against the wind.
Monetary policy should stick to its core mandate of price stability, and should deviate from its traditional role only if the benefits to the economy outweigh the costs, according to a new study from the International Monetary Fund, “Monetary Policy and Financial Stability.”
The question is whether monetary policy should be altered to contain financial stability risks. Should it lend a hand by temporarily raising interest rates more than warranted by price and output stability objectives?
Based on our current knowledge, and in present circumstances, the answer is generally no.
“Inflation targeting and leaning against the wind,” in South African Reserve Bank (2015), Fourteen Years of Inflation Targeting in South Africa and the Challenge of a Changing Mandate: South African Reserve Bank Conference Proceedings 2014. Pretoria: South African Reserve Bank, 19-36. Paper. Slides. Program. Continue reading
New publication: “The Possible Unemployment Cost of Average Inflation below a Credible Target,” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 7(1) (2015) 258-296.
Riksbankens mandat bör förtydligas, sysselsättningen ges större vikt, den demokratiska kontrollen av Riksbanken skärpas och koordineringen av penningpolitiken och makrotillsynen förbättras. Det skriver jag i den nya underlagsrapporten Penningpolitik och full sysselsättning för LOs projekt Full sysselsättning och solidarisk lönepolitik. Continue reading
Vox column: Why leaning against the wind is the wrong monetary policy for Sweden, referring to this new paper.
New short paper, “Resilience, Debt, and Net Worth: Has Resilience Increased with Higher Debt-to-Income Ratios?,” January 2014. Continue reading
New publication: “Some Lessons from Six Years of Practical Inflation Targeting,” Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 2013:3, 29-80. Continue reading
New paper (revised August 31, 2013): “Some Lessons from Six Years of Practical Inflation Targeting,” revised, August 31, 2013. Previous version prepared for the Riksbank conference on “Two Decades of Inflation Targeting: Main Lessons and Remaining Challenges,” June 3, 2013. Paper (revised). Continue reading
New publication: “Evaluating Monetary Policy,” in Koenig, Evan F., Robert Leeson, and George A. Kahn, eds., The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy, Hoover Institution Press, 2012, p. 245-274. PDF
The line: With a modified Taylor curve, the forecast Taylor curve, and plots of mean squared gaps showing the tradeoff between the variability of the inflation-gap and output-gap forecasts it is possible to evaluate policy ex ante, that is, taking into account the information available at the time of the policy decisions, and even evaluate policy in real time.