Panel introduction (slides) at the Conference on European Economic Integration 2014: The Rebalancing Challenge in Europe – Perspectives for (central, eastern, and southeastern Europe (CESEE), Vienna, November 24-25, 2014.
The Big Read in Financial Times, November 20, 2014: Sveden’s central bank – Stockholm syndrome
Does a trivial econometric error explain why Andersson and Jonung (2014) get different
estimates of a Swedish Phillips curve than the very robust estimates that I get in Svensson
(2014, 2015)? Yes, their trivial error is not to have done the standard test for weak
instruments when using regressions with instrumental variables. Their instruments soundly
fail the standard Cragg-Donald F-test. Their instruments are weak and as a consequence their
estimates of the Phillips curve are unreliable, not mine. See this note.
Lars Jonung has repeatedly in Swedish media in sweeping terms criticized my estimate of the increase in average unemployment caused by the fact that average inflation in Sweden significantly undershot the target during 1997-2011. Every time I have replied and shown and pointed out that he is wrong on all counts, lately in this Ekonomistas post (in Swedish) and in Svenska Dagbladet (also in Swedish). Now, Fredrik Andersson and Jonung have written a long paper with a series of regressions which are supposed to show that my results are not robust. The idea of Andersson and Jonung is, despite the common practice in similar studies and despite econometric problems with overlapping data, to use annual inflation instead of quarterly inflation. However, on closer inspection, their regressions turn out to be misspecified and not reliable. When I examine corrected versions and run new regressions with annual inflation, they confirm my previous estimate. Again it seems that Jonung is wrong on all counts. Continue reading
New Ekonomistas post: “Ingves försöker försvara sig” (“Ingves tries to defend himself,” in Swedish).
Interview in Svenska Dagbladet, November 11, 2010: “Sänk räntan till minus” (“Set the policy rate negative, in Swedish)
Interview in Svenska Dagbladet, November 11, 2010: “Jonung har helt enkelt fel i praktiskt taget allt han säger” (“Jonung is simply wrong in practically all he is saying,” in Swedish)
Ekonomistas post: “Jonung and sanningen” (“Jonung and the truth”, i Swedish).
Bloomberg, October 31, 2014: “Central Banker Hero Becomes Face of Failure in Swedish Tale“
Editorial in Financial Times, October 30, 2014.
Bloomberg, October 29, 2014: “How Sweden Joined Central Banking’s Hall of Shame.”
New interview in Bloomberg: “Riksbanker who left in protest says untried steps only hope,” October 27, 2014.
I have given a series of lectures in Tirana, Albania, on October 20-22, 2014. They are available here.
In a detailed interview with the News Agency Direkt, then Riksbank Deputy Governor Karolina Ekholm reveals how the Riksbank’s judgmental adjustments of the model forecasts have given the Riksbank’s inflation forecasts an upward bias. She also points out that I warned about this upward bias and explicitly entered reservations about the inflation forecast from december 2012. It was thus not a secret at the Riksbank that there were problems with the forecast. Continue reading